The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has just dropped its outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, and let’s just say it’s possible that Mother Nature might be cranking the volume up to eleven this year. The 2025 hurricane forecast indicates a particularly active season.
According to NOAA, there’s a 60% chance we’ll see an above-normal hurricane season, a 30% shot at a typical one, and just 10% odds of a quieter year—basically the meteorological equivalent of, “Don’t get your hopes up.” When considering the 2025 hurricane forecast, it’s clear we should brace ourselves for potential challenges.
Before you panic or start boarding up windows in May, remember: this forecast is about storm quantity, not their paths or impacts. Even in a quiet year, a single hurricane hitting your area can still wreak havoc. Just ask the folks who remember Hurricane Andrew (1992) or Hurricane Ida (2021)—both of which were standout disasters in otherwise “meh” seasons. The 2025 hurricane forecast isn’t a guarantee of individual storm impacts.
So, no matter what NOAA or other organizations say, if you are in Florida, or for that matter, on the Gulf or the North Carolina coast, it is best to prepare early and make a plan just in case you need it later. Failing to plan is planning to fail, after all.
Photo: NOAA
The Numbers Game
NOAA’s crystal ball calls for:
- 13 to 19 named storms (with winds of 39 mph or higher)
- 6 to 10 hurricanes (74 mph or higher)
- 3 to 5 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher, aka “uh-oh” storms with winds over 111 mph)
And they’re not guessing wildly—NOAA says they have 70% confidence in these numbers, which in weather-speak is the equivalent of, “We’re pretty sure, but don’t bet the house.”
What’s Steering the Storm Machine?
Unlike some past years, La Niña and El Niño are expected to sit this one out, leaving the atmospheric DJ booth empty and letting other factors take the lead. That could open the door for a classic setup: a “back-loaded” season, where the storms don’t show up to the party until late summer and fall.
NOAA also notes that the East Coast might be more in the bullseye this year. That doesn’t mean the Gulf Coast or Caribbean is off the hook—again, one landfall is all it takes to ruin your Labor Day barbecue. That should give pause to anyone on the coast from Miami to Cape Hatteras, but again, these are long-term forecasts and they may or may not pass. The 2025 hurricane forecast highlights regions at risk.
Other ingredients in this year’s hurricane cocktail include:
- Above-average Atlantic sea surface temperatures—which are like energy drinks for hurricanes.
- Weaker wind shear, which gives storms more room to grow without getting torn apart.
Don’t Just Watch—Prepare
If you’re in a hurricane-prone area, don’t treat this forecast like a bad weather movie trailer—take action. Stock up on essentials, update your evacuation plan, and make sure your roof doesn’t have the aerodynamic profile of a paper plate.
The State of Florida has a Hurricane Preparedness checklist that’s well worth your time to read and to get some good advice on how to prepare for the inevitable storms.
Hurricane Kits
It is important to create a kit of supplies that you could take with you if you are forced to evacuate. This kit will also be useful if you are able to stay in your home, but are still affected by the storm, such as through the loss of power. One common trend seen when hurricanes are approaching is a wide-spread panic. When this happens, people rush in large numbers to get all the supplies they think they need. However, if you prepare your kit ahead of time, you can alleviate a lot of the potential stress of a very chaotic situation. You should create your kit in a bag that you can easily take with you. Some recommended items to include are:
- Non-perishable food (enough to last at least 3 days)
- Water (enough to last at least 3 days)
- First-aid kit (include any prescription medication you may need)
- Personal hygiene items and sanitation items
- Flashlights (have extra batteries on hand)
- Battery operated radio (again, have extra batteries)
- Waterproof container with cash and important documents
- Manual can opener
- Lighter or matches
- Books, magazines, games for recreation
- Special needs items: pet supplies and baby supplies if applicable
- Cooler and ice packs
- A plan for evacuation and for if family members are separated
Don’t forget your pets — they will need food and water as well. And if you have cats, maybe an extra bag of litter wouldn’t hurt to have on hand.
Make sure you have an adequate amount of cash on hand in case power goes out and whatever stores are open can’t take credit or debit cards.
Another thing to do before a storm is to make sure your vehicle is full of gas (or fully charged if you drive an electric.)
While state and local governments will do everything to protect people and property before, during, and after a storm, relying on the government to save you if you are not prepared is a fool’s errand. Have a plan, have supplies, and be ready to leave if local or state authorities tell you to evacuate.
Bonus: What Counts as a “Named Storm”?
Quick refresher: A storm gets a name when it hits sustained winds of 39 mph. That’s enough to knock over trash cans, mess up your hair, and apparently, earn a spot in meteorological history. The Atlantic season’s name list rotates every six years, unless a storm is especially destructive—then its name gets retired, like a jersey in the hurricane hall of fame.
Most Floridians will scoff at a storm that’s only rated as a “tropical storm” and go about their business without much of a second thought. The state’s homes and highways are indeed resilient enough to handle that sort of weather, except a slow-moving storm dropping tens of inches of rain.
Bottom line? The 2025 hurricane season might be a real handful. Or it might not. But if you live near the coast, assume it will be. Hurricanes don’t care about forecasts—they care about warm water, low wind shear, and favorable conditions to steer them along.
Stay safe. And maybe invest in a weather radio that doesn’t rely on WiFi. Don’t forget the batteries!
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