Florida’s Drought Continues

It’s dry in a great deal of Florida — too dry. While warm, sunny days are perfect for beachgoers and theme park guests, a drought is bad for farmers and others who need regular rains to maintain their businesses and way of life. It’s also bad for wilderness areas of the state, with lower water levels in rivers, lakes, and aquifers, impacting water supplies while increasing the risk of saltwater intrusion and algae blooms in the water supply.

Florida, despite having a subtropical climate and abundant rainfall, is no stranger to drought. While not as drought-prone as Western states, Florida faces unique challenges due to its sandy soils, high water demand, and seasonal rainfall patterns.

The state swings between wet and dry cycles, making it vulnerable to periods of water shortage, especially during La Niña years or when rainfall is well below average. As of 2025, prolonged dry spells have sparked growing concerns across the state, with some regions experiencing moderate to severe drought conditions. Here’s a regional look at how drought is impacting Florida and the heightened risk of wildfires.

Environmental and Economic Impacts

Drought in Florida doesn’t just threaten drinking water supplies. It stresses ecosystems, shrinks wetlands, increases salinity in estuaries, and endangers fish and bird populations. In areas like the Everglades, reduced water levels disrupt the delicate balance of life.

Economically, the impact is felt across agriculture, tourism, and public utilities. Farmers face crop loss and higher irrigation costs. State parks and recreational areas have closed trails due to fire risk. Municipalities are spending more on fire response and water treatment.

Current Conditions

Climate Outlook and Mitigation

According to the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center, there is an “equal” chance of a return to normal precipitation levels over the next three months as the state enters its wet season. Keep in mind that is 50/50, meaning it could be wetter than normal, or dry conditions may continue. If it seems like that’s not much help, it probably isn’t, but then again, prediction weather patterns over a three month period is dependent on a lot of variables that are constantly changing. Effectively, this is their best guess and it is better than nothing.

Panhandle

The Florida Panhandle, stretching from Pensacola to Tallahassee, is often more in sync with the Southeastern U.S. than with peninsular Florida. This region has seen below-average rainfall over the past six months. Reservoir levels have dropped, and agricultural communities are feeling the strain. Farmers in Jackson and Washington counties have reported poor crop yields and delayed planting schedules due to dry soils.

The lack of moisture has also created ideal conditions for wildfires. Bay and Gulf counties have experienced a spike in brush fires, prompting burn bans and resource mobilization by the Florida Forest Service. With sparse tree canopies in some areas and pine-dominated forests in others, the Panhandle is particularly vulnerable to fast-spreading wildfires when dry.

North Florida

North Florida, including cities like Gainesville, Lake City, and Jacksonville, has also faced increasing drought stress. Rainfall deficits have compounded since late 2024, and aquifer levels have started to fall. This is particularly concerning because the Floridan Aquifer, which supplies drinking water to much of the state, is recharged in this region.

Water management districts have issued voluntary water restrictions. Residents have been asked to limit lawn irrigation and car washing. Wildfires are becoming more frequent, especially in forested areas like Osceola National Forest and near the Suwannee River. In February 2025, a 2,500-acre fire in Baker County required evacuations and forced temporary highway closures. Emergency services are stretched thin, and fire officials have warned that without significant rainfall, the region could face a record-breaking fire season.

Central Florida

Central Florida, home to Orlando, Lakeland, and Ocala, has seen persistent dry conditions throughout the winter. The region relies heavily on seasonal thunderstorms for its water needs, but those have been sparse. As a result, lakes and retention ponds are visibly lower, and water tables are declining.

Orange, Seminole, and Polk counties have issued mandatory water restrictions. Landscape irrigation is now limited to once a week. The lack of rain has stressed natural ecosystems, with increased tree mortality in conservation areas and drying wetlands, threatening local wildlife.

The wildfire situation is growing more serious. The Ocala National Forest, already prone to seasonal fires, has become a hotspot for fire activity. In March, fire crews battled a complex fire that burned more than 3,000 acres over several days. Smoke drifted into nearby residential areas, causing air quality advisories.

Southwest Florida

In Southwest Florida, which includes Tampa, Fort Myers, and Naples, the drought has had a mixed impact. Coastal areas have been less affected due to sea breezes triggering occasional showers, but inland counties like DeSoto and Hardee are deep in drought.

Agriculture, particularly citrus and vegetable farming, has taken a hit. Farmers are relying more on groundwater, which is depleting aquifers at a concerning rate. This raises alarms about saltwater intrusion, especially in low-lying coastal zones where freshwater buffers are shrinking.

Wildfires have become a pressing issue, especially in Charlotte and Lee counties. A major blaze in early March consumed over 4,500 acres and forced temporary evacuations in parts of Cape Coral. Fire departments are on high alert, and mutual aid agreements with nearby counties have been activated to ensure adequate response capacity.

Southeast Florida

The southeast, including Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and West Palm Beach, typically receives ample rainfall, but even this region hasn’t been spared. Broward and Palm Beach counties are now classified under moderate drought, with rainfall down 30% from average in recent months.

Urban water demand remains high, and authorities are warning residents to conserve. Lawns are browning, and water utility providers are seeing higher-than-expected usage due to homeowners trying to compensate for dry conditions. There is also growing concern over fire risk in the Everglades and urban-wildland interfaces.

In January 2025, a wildfire ignited in Everglades National Park due to lightning and spread rapidly due to high winds and low humidity. It burned over 6,000 acres before being contained. Though remote, the fire underscored the region’s vulnerability and disrupted air travel due to heavy smoke.

Florida Keys

The Florida Keys are uniquely vulnerable to drought. With no natural freshwater sources, the island chain relies on water piped in from the mainland. While rainfall isn’t typically abundant here, this winter has been especially dry, and the Florida Keys Aqueduct Authority is reporting supply constraints.

Wildfire risk is lower here due to limited vegetation, but the dry conditions have led to heightened fire alerts. The dry scrub and invasive species like Australian pine can still catch fire easily. Officials are monitoring campsites and parks closely to prevent human-caused ignitions.

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