Floridians, as well as residents all over the southeast, are still reeling from last year’s vicious storms that brought property damage and death as far north as North Carolina and west to Kentucky. So how is the 2025 Hurricane forecast shaping up?
Floridians know the drill—every year, from June 1 to November 30, the Atlantic hurricane season puts the Sunshine State on high alert. Some years are quiet, while others bring storm after storm barreling toward our coasts. So, what’s in store for the 2025 hurricane forecast? Early forecasts suggest a season near average, but as any Floridian will tell you, all it takes is one storm to make a big impact.
What the Experts Are Saying
Meteorologists have started rolling out their predictions for the upcoming season, and so far, things look pretty typical—at least on paper.
- Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), a respected forecasting group, is calling for 15 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
- WeatherBell Analytics is slightly more aggressive, predicting 15 to 19 named storms, seven to nine hurricanes, and two to three major hurricanes.
- We’re still waiting on forecasts from Colorado State University (CSU) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which typically release their outlooks in April and May.
But here’s the thing—hurricane forecasts aren’t an exact science. While these numbers give us a rough idea of what to expect, the real question for Floridians isn’t how many storms will form, but where they’ll go.
What’s Driving This Year’s Forecast?
A few key factors are shaping this year’s predictions:
🌊 Warm Waters in the Atlantic – Sea surface temperatures in the Main Development Region (MDR), where most hurricanes form, are running about 0.3°C warmer than normal. Warmer waters fuel stronger storms, so this is something to keep an eye on.
🌬️ Trade Winds Are Slightly Weaker – Weaker trade winds in the Caribbean can create a more favorable environment for hurricanes to intensify.
🌡️ El Niño Is Fading, but What’s Next? – Right now, we’re coming out of an El Niño phase, which usually suppresses hurricane activity in the Atlantic. Forecasters expect conditions to shift to a neutral phase by summer. Neutral conditions can go either way—it really depends on how other weather patterns develop.
What This Means for Florida
Let’s be real—whether a season is “average” or “above average” doesn’t matter much if Florida gets hit. Just ask anyone who went through Hurricane Ian in 2022 or Hurricane Idalia in 2023. In fact, 2024 brought three hurricanes to Florida, two of which were major.
Even if we only see a handful of hurricanes this year, just one strong storm making landfall in the right (or wrong) spot can be devastating. That’s why early preparation is key.
How to Get Ready Now
If you’ve lived in Florida for a while, you probably already have a hurricane plan. But if you’re new to the state or just need a refresher, here’s what you should be doing now—before the first storm even forms:
📦 Stock Up on Essentials – Don’t wait until a storm is on the way to grab water, batteries, and non-perishable food. The best time to buy supplies is before hurricane season even starts.
🗺️ Know Your Evacuation Zone – Florida has evacuation zones ranked from A (highest risk) to E (lower risk). If you’re in a coastal area or near a flood-prone zone, make sure you know where to go if an evacuation is ordered.
📱 Stay Connected – Download weather apps like the National Hurricane Center (NHC) app, sign up for emergency alerts from your county, and follow reliable sources like NOAA, the NHC, and local meteorologists.
🏠 Check Your Home’s Defenses – If you live in a hurricane-prone area, consider storm shutters, impact-resistant windows, or even a reinforced garage door. Trim trees and secure loose outdoor items before storm season starts.
Looking Back at 2024: A Reminder to Stay Prepared
Last year’s hurricane season was active, with 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes. Florida was in the crosshairs multiple times, and the damage added up. Even businesses like Disney took a hit, losing around $120 million due to hurricane-related closures.
The takeaway? Even if the 2025 forecast looks “normal,” it only takes one storm to turn life upside down.
Final Thoughts
If you live in Florida, hurricanes are a fact of life. While we can’t control the weather, we can control how prepared we are. With the season officially starting June 1, now is the time to get ready. Stay informed, make a plan, and—if a storm is heading your way—take it seriously.
It’s early – we’ll keep you updated as more 2025 Hurricane forecasts roll in, but in the meantime, don’t wait until the last minute to prepare. Because in Florida, when it comes to hurricanes, it’s not a matter of if, but when.
