NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS), a centerpiece of the Artemis program, may face cancellation as rising costs and delays spark calls for reevaluation. SpaceX’s Starship, a fully reusable spacecraft under development, is emerging as a strong candidate to replace SLS for the program’s lunar missions, potentially marking a significant shift in NASA’s approach to deep space exploration.
Cost and Performance Concerns
Since its inception, the SLS, which first launched in November 2022 during Artemis I, has been plagued by persistent budget overruns and schedule delays. Designed for crewed lunar and Mars missions, the rocket’s cost per launch is estimated at $4.1 billion, according to NASA’s Office of Inspector General. In a September 2023 report, the agency stated, “At current cost levels, the SLS program is unsustainable.”
The financial strain is compounded by competition from SpaceX’s Starship, which promises significantly lower costs due to its fully reusable design. Analysts estimate Starship launches could cost less than $10 million each, a fraction of the SLS budget. Starship has already been selected as the lunar lander for Artemis III, NASA’s first crewed mission to the Moon since Apollo 17.
Political and Industry Pressures
Criticism of the Space Launch System reached a new level in October 2024 when billionaire Michael Bloomberg publicly called for its cancellation, describing the program as a “colossal waste of time and resources.” Bloomberg, in an op-ed, advocated for redirecting funding to SpaceX and other commercial providers, arguing they could more efficiently achieve NASA’s exploration goals.
The re-election of former President Donald Trump in November 2024 may also influence NASA’s future plans. During his first term, Trump signed the Space Policy Directive 1, emphasizing a return to the Moon. However, sources suggest his new administration may prioritize Mars exploration, aligning with SpaceX CEO Elon Musk’s long-term vision. A shift in focus toward Mars could further reduce the need for the SLS.
Starship Rising
Could Starship even be ready in time to step in earlier? Yes…no…maybe. It would be virtually impossible for Starship to step in for Artemis II without pushing the Artemis program timeline back…way back. Currently, NASA is in the process of assembling the massive SLS rocket for Artemis II inside Cape Kennedy’s iconic Vehicle Assembly building. With the launch tower systems nearing completion, the solid rocket boosters being stacked, and the main fuel tank in place, it would seem that there is at least some chance of the launch happening in September 2025 as scheduled. But in terms of government operations, that’s a LONG way down the road. Any delays would have to be substantial to open up the door for Starship on this one.
Starship’s first test flight came in April 2023, ending in the vehicle’s destruction. Now, just 18 months later, the sixth test flight is complete, and development is going well by all accounts. Still, it could easily take another 15-20 flights for Starship to be ready for certification to carry humans. SpaceX’s ability to rapidly develop and fly Starship test flights is the key. The stars seem to be aligning for the company, as FAA launch approvals are coming at an even more rapid pace. Elon Musk has made no secret in the past that government regulatory issues have thus far slowed the company’s testing pace.
According to a recently published article in Gizmodo, Musk wants to see the mega-rocket fly up to 25 times next year, working its way up to a launch rate of 100 flights per year. Flights anywhere near the suggested 2025 pace would likely see Starship rated to carry astronauts within the next 12 to 18 months.
NASA has already integrated Starship into its longer-range Artemis plans. In addition to serving as the Artemis III lander, the spacecraft is being evaluated for broader roles, including transporting cargo and crew to the Moon and beyond.
Dr. Greg Autry, a professor at Arizona State University and former NASA advisory council member, commented, “Starship represents a paradigm shift in space exploration. Its capability to deliver large payloads at low cost could redefine how we approach lunar and Martian missions.”
Challenges to SLS
Supporters of the Space Launch System argue that the program remains critical for national security and sustaining a robust U.S. industrial base for space exploration. Boeing, the primary contractor for the rocket, has defended its importance, emphasizing its unmatched payload capacity and deep space capabilities.
However, critics contend that the rocket’s reliance on legacy shuttle-era technology has hindered innovation and driven up costs. A growing number of policymakers and industry leaders are questioning whether NASA should continue investing in the SLS when commercial alternatives like Starship are advancing rapidly.
What Lies Ahead
No official decision has been made regarding the SLS. Still, the convergence of financial pressures, political shifts, and the rise of private-sector competitors has created a challenging environment for the program. NASA is expected to conduct a review of its Artemis architecture in the coming months, which could determine the fate of the SLS.
If Starship can meet NASA’s requirements for crewed lunar missions, it could play an expanded role in the Artemis program, potentially replacing the SLS entirely. The future of NASA’s flagship rocket remains uncertain, with its role in the Artemis program hanging in the balance.
