Could the next Starship launch be closer than we thought?
If you’ve been following the Starship program, you’ve probably seen the tension building between SpaceX and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The FAA is tasked with certifying launch vehicles for flight. With Starship still in testing, each launch thus far has resulted in an anomaly of some kind. Although good for data collecting, the FAA requires SpaceX to submit a report about each failed launch and correct what went wrong. Although SpaceX may feel they are ready to launch, they must wait for the final nod from the FAA.
The launch license for IFT-4 allows for multiple launches in the same configuration. With IFT-5 attempting to catch the booster, something SpaceX has never attempted before, it makes sense that there will be significantly more FAA involvement. With that in mind, a modified launch license must be issued before any launches with a catch can be attempted. In a statement from September 11th, the FAA reported to @NASASpaceflight on X that the launch license isn’t expected until late November.
So far, SpaceX has launched four missions from their private launch facility in Starbase, Texas. Starbase launches are far different than any launch from Florida and require more community awareness. Today, the US Coast Guard issued a Notice to Mariners (NOTMAR) for the waters around Starbase for “rocket launching operations”, slated for October 12th between 0700-0810 local time. A NOTMAR is just one of the keys to a Starship launch date, and this NOTMAR is the first key that seems to have fallen into place.
It’s Space X vs. FAA
SpaceX has been in hot water the past few months with the FAA. SpaceX has experienced three separate anomalies with their Falcon 9 rocket, each resulting the grounding of their fleet and an FAA investigation. Because the Falcon 9 is flight proven and has a great track record, these investigations have been relatively short lived. However, each grounding delays other missions. SpaceX has two NASA missions in the next week alone that are in jeopardy of potentially missing their launch windows if the Falcon 9 isn’t cleared for flight.
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has been bashing the FAA and their administrator Michael Whitaker on his social media platform X. On September 25th, Musk called for Whitaker to resign after the FAA announced fines for SpaceX following two launch violations in 2023.
Musk recently threatened to file a lawsuit against the FAA for over-regulation. Musk also sent a letter to Congress which outlined incorrect statements that Whitaker had made regarding the launch company.
What Does That Mean For Starship and IFT-5?
Is the new NOTMAR an attempt by SpaceX to pressure the FAA to speed up the licensing process? A NOTMAR was issued in early September, 2023 for IFT-2, but Starship didn’t leave the ground until mid-November that year. The FAA confirmed today (10/02/2024) that their previous statement still stands, and a launch license isn’t expected until late November at the earliest. If SpaceX is trying to pressure the FAA to expedite the process, so far they have not been successful. SpaceX has been posting on X over the past month that they are ready to fly.
For now, all we can do is wait for the cards to fall in place. In past attempts, Starship has launched almost immediately after a launch license has been issued. But this attempt is certainly new for everyone involved. If you’re planning to visit South Texas for the next attempt, get ready, because IFT-5 will be here sooner than you know it!
