If Northrop Grumman and Space X are supposed to be competitors, why is Space X launching the upcoming NG-21 mission for Northrop Grumman? The answer lies in recent history and the rapidly changing world of geo-politics.
In 2008, Orbital ATK (later acquired by Northrop Grumman), along with Space X, were the only two American companies that were contracted to support NASA’s Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) program. In a bid to build redundancy in launch and delivery vehicles that year, Orbital was awarded $1.9 billion for 8 missions, while SpaceX was awarded $1.6 billion for 12 missions.
Before being acquired by Northrup Grumman in 2018, Orbital ATK had designed, built, and assembled an advanced spacecraft that they named Cygnus, using a pressurized cargo module from Thales Alenia Space and a service module based on the Orbital GEOStar. But that was only half the equation. Orbital also designed their own launch vehicle, which would come to be known as Antares.
It looked as if Orbital ATK and SpaceX were set to compete head-to-head in the low earth orbit market, and NASA would have the two launch systems they sought. But Orbital’s Antares quickly ran into engine problems with their RP-1 (kerosene) and liquid oxygen (LOX) based engine design, and contracted with the Ukranian government’s Pivdenne Design Office and state-owned Pivdenmash to redesign and manufacture the first stage core.
Pivdenmash, headquartered in the city of Dnipro, at the time, seemed like a good choice. Pivdenmash had considerable experience producing spacecraft, launch vehicles, and liquid rocket propellant, and had worked with multiple countries. Unable to completely work out the problems with the Antares engine, the later versions of Antares boosters began using Russian RD-181 engines, which were proven and of similar design. Orbital / Northrop Grumman went on to launch eleven successful Cygnus missions using the RD-181 engine to service the ISS from 2016 to 2023.
Things looked like they were on the right track again. But then in 2022, Putin directed Russian forces to invade the Ukraine. Six days after launching the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Russia curtailed all sales and support of the RD-180 and RD-181 engines to the United States, in retaliation for sanctions placed on Russia by the United States for the Ukraine attack.
Five months after Russia invaded Ukraine, the Pivdenmash facility in Dnipro was struck by a Russian long-range cruise missile, The plant was targeted again in November, further reducing any chances whatsoever in obtaining the RD-181’s. As such, the Cygnus NG-19 mission in August 2023 was the last to use Cygnus to use an Antares booster.
Now, faced with getting the next Cygnus resupply mission to the ISS on time, Northrop Grumman has contracted with “competitor” Space X to launch the mission on a Falcon 9. Much like July’s temporary grounding of the Falcon 9, the Cygnus launch problem illustrates again why redundancy in spaceflight systems is important, and why NASA was smart to pursue it.
Fortunately, the use of Space X’s Falcon 9 rockets is only temporary. Northrup Grumman is reportedly developing an Antares 330 rocket for use beginning with NG-23 in mid-year 2025. This vehicle will use a new first stage developed by Firefly Aerospace and the existing second stage from the Antares 230+. Once that happens, America will once again have two independent operational resupply programs, one by Northrop Grumman, and the other by Space X.
In the larger picture, one is left to wonder if the “on again, off again” working relationship with Russia will allow future partnerships to escape the same fate. But that’s another story.
