AccuWeather and other major forecasters have already begun releasing their 2024 Hurricane Season forecasts, and the news is not good.
Long range predictions suggest a significant uptick in storm activity and severity due to the transition from the current El Niño pattern to a La Niña phase during the latter half of the season. This shift is anticipated to foster conditions that could lead to a “supercharged” hurricane season, with the potential for “explosive tropical development,” particularly in the Atlantic according to AccuWeather meteorologists.
According to Jonathan Porter, AccuWeather’s chief meteorologist, La Niña typically leads to an increase in tropical storms and hurricanes due to reduced wind shear, which can disrupt storm formation. Historical data support these concerns; notably, La Niña was present during the record-breaking 2005 and 2020 hurricane seasons, both of which saw significant storm activity, including multiple Category 5 hurricanes.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) heightened attention to this potential shift earlier this month, issuing a La Niña watch and forecasting a 55% chance of the phenomenon developing between June and August. “The second half of the hurricane season is likely to be very active,” stated AccuWeather’s long-range expert, Paul Pastelok, emphasizing the increased favorability for tropical systems to develop.
In addition to the anticipated La Niña conditions, unusually warm Atlantic Ocean temperatures are already setting the stage for a potentially intense hurricane season. “Any storms that do form will have the potential to rapidly strengthen, even close to land,” Porter warned, noting that current sea temperatures are reminiscent of mid-summer levels, providing ample fuel for storm development.
Megan Borowski, chief meteorologist at the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network (FPREN), and Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane forecaster, both highlighted the critical role of sea surface temperatures and upper-level wind patterns in storm formation. Borowski pointed out that the Atlantic is already showing temperatures 1-2 degrees above average, a trend expected to continue into the hurricane season.
This early warning was echoed in February by Colorado State University’s Philip Klotzbach, a renowned expert in seasonal hurricane forecasts, who cautioned that while it’s still early, current indicators suggest an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season is likely. “It’s very unlikely that we will have El Niño for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season in 2024,” “It’s February and a lot can still change. But if it doesn’t, then it could potentially be a very busy season,” said Klotzbach.
Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has predicted the formation of 20 tropical storms, 9 of which are likely to escalate into hurricanes and 4 into intense or major hurricanes, potentially posing a significant threat. The firm stresses that this is an early forecast, and a lot could change between now and summer.
Forecast firm Weather Bell, on the other hand, has opted for between 25 and 30 named storms, declaring that 2024 could be the “hurricane season from hell.”
Residents along the Gulf Coast and Atlantic Seaboard, especially those in Texas, are advised to remain vigilant and prepare for the possibility of direct impacts from tropical systems this year. The combination of a pending La Niña and historically warm Atlantic waters could herald a “blockbuster” season for Florida and nearby states, with significant implications for coastal and inland communities alike.
Last Year’s Hurricane Season Numbers
In total, 22 storms developed in the 2023 season with 20 named storms (12 tropical storms; seven hurricanes, including three major Category 3 or higher; and one unusual, subtropical cyclone that formed Jan. 16 off the coast of the northeastern U.S.) and two numbered storms.Hurricane Idalia was the only hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. last year. It struck as a category-3 hurricane on Aug. 30 near Keaton Beach, Florida, causing storm surge inundation of 7 to 12 feet and widespread rainfall flooding in Florida and throughout the Southeast.
As the hurricane season approaches, forecasters urge the public to stay informed and prepare, emphasizing that early preparation can be pivotal in mitigating the impact of these powerful storms. With NOAA set to release its 2024 Atlantic hurricane season predictions in May, communities and emergency management officials are closely monitoring developments, ready to respond to the challenges that a “super-charged” hurricane season may present.
